A very strong El Niño is currently affecting the tropical Pacific and is expected to continue through the first half of 2027, raising the risk of prolonged rainfall shortages and drought in several parts of the Philippines.
The weather phenomenon could peak toward the end of 2026, bringing below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures across most parts of the country, according to the latest climate outlook.
The latest drought assessment showed that five provinces experienced meteorological drought in October 2026, while 11 provinces were under dry spell conditions and 10 others experienced dry conditions.
For November, below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of the country.
Several provinces may also experience meteorological drought or dry spell conditions by the end of the month, while warmer-than-average mean air temperatures are forecast in most areas.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal, influencing rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.
In the Philippines, the phenomenon generally increases the likelihood of rainfall deficits, which can lead to dry spells and drought.
However, the climate outlook cautioned that episodes of heavy rainfall may still occur despite the prevailing El Niño conditions, particularly when tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems affect the country.
The public and concerned government agencies were urged to implement appropriate interventions and mitigation measures to reduce the potential effects of the phenomenon.
Authorities were particularly advised to strengthen water conservation efforts and ensure the efficient management of available water resources as rainfall shortages are expected to affect several areas.
📷 NOAA / Website
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